D-S证据理论在导弹健康状态评估中的应用

Application of D-S Evidence Theory in Missile Health Status Evaluation

中文关键词:  熵权法  证据距离  归一化  D-S证据理论

英文关键词:entroy method  evidence distance  normalization  D-S evidence theroy

中文摘要:

      科学评估导弹健康状态有助于合理安排维修和保养任务，达到事半功倍的效果。基于D-S（Dempster-Shafer）证据理论的导弹健康状态评估模型，结合证据自身的有效性和证据之间的联系，首先利用熵权法确定指标的权重并突出状态较差的参数，利用岭形分布隶属度函数求出各个证据的基本概率分配，在此基础上对基于证据距离的证据可信度做进一步修正，确定各个证据的最终权重，然后利用D-S组合规则进行融合。经验证，该方法具有较好的收敛效果，可以有效处理冲突信息并客观评估导弹健康状态。

英文摘要:

      Scientific evaluation of missile health status is helpful to arrange repair and maintenance tasks reasonably and get twice the result with half the effort.Based on D-S evidence theory of missile health status evaluation model,combined with the validity of evidences and the connection among the proofs.Firstly,index weight and poor prominent state parameters are determined by using entropy method,and the basic probability distribution of the evidences is calculated by utilizing ridge distribution membership function.On the basis of the evidence distance,the evidence credibility is further modified,and the final weight of each evidence is determined.Then it is fused by using D-S combination rules.It is proved that this method has good convergence effect and can effectively process conflict information and objectively evaluate missile health state.